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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still