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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."